GDP impact of trade restrictions with Russia by country 2022

Trade restrictions of Western countries with Russia could cost Russia nearly 10 percent of its annual gross domestic product in the long term as of 2022, according to a model simulation of doubling of non-tariff trade barriers. The economies of the Baltic states were estimated to experience a more negative impact than countries in Western Europe and the United States.

Estimated long-term change in annual gross domestic product (GDP) due to trade restrictions of Western countries with Russia as of 2022, by country

Characteristic	Long-term change in GDP
Russia	-9.71%
Lithuania	-2.48%
Latvia	-2.02%
Estonia	-1.98%
Czechia	-1.16%
Poland	-0.78%
Belgium	-0.51%
Germany	-0.4%
Italy	-0.31%
Austria	-0.28%
Spain	-0.22%
France	-0.16%
United Kingdom	-0.09%
United States	-0.04%
China	0.02%

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Release date

March 2022

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Region

Worldwide, Russia

Survey time period

2022

Supplementary notes

Based on a model simulation. The source specified the following information: "The calculations were made using the KITE model (Kiel Institute Trade Policy Evaluation). The model can simulate how trade flows adjust in the long term when international supply chains are interrupted and how this affects the growth opportunities of an economy. It does not model the short-term effects of reciprocal sanctions, which usually lead to income losses on both sides. The model simulates a doubling of non-tariff trade barriers, but does not model the recently adopted sanctions against Russia."

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